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Just 48 hours to go.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|