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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.